Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 12.678671 14.497250 16.453452 18.710376 21.238529 23.979204 27.171100
2025-07-20 9.984735 12.450991 15.307459 18.844987 23.091718 28.008348 34.112869
2025-07-27 8.540273 11.263931 14.571659 18.855656 24.225222 30.698172 39.053332
2025-08-03 7.310914 10.149871 13.749347 18.602744 24.924017 32.820391 43.364471
2025-08-10 6.474311 9.398505 13.246746 18.617734 25.844865 35.147445 47.926213
2025-08-17 5.847614 8.842698 12.920217 18.791383 26.925650 37.678688 52.824392
2025-08-24 5.258855 8.265345 12.491016 18.755076 27.671646 39.751477 57.160096
2025-08-31 4.722131 7.701256 12.017671 18.594814 28.198115 41.509729 61.105952
2025-09-07 4.334215 7.315820 11.759082 18.703068 29.080285 43.767098 65.807522
2025-09-14 4.102216 7.144837 11.796398 19.233996 30.583128 46.946779 71.927069
2025-09-21 3.725776 6.705560 11.383922 19.043511 30.985071 48.533832 75.794562
2025-09-28 3.251685 6.059154 10.592402 18.200768 30.330829 48.511837 77.267588
2025-10-05 3.086055 5.924494 10.618954 18.665632 31.739287 51.662394 83.651952
2025-10-12 2.908423 5.752392 10.569645 19.000950 32.957147 54.574303 89.799142
2025-10-19 2.678848 5.463693 10.297900 18.941215 33.521911 56.481627 94.454166
2025-10-26 2.444204 5.142352 9.943054 18.711590 33.785140 57.911892 98.404482
2025-11-02 2.269488 4.916584 9.736796 18.718156 34.430529 59.962862 103.398311
2025-11-09 2.135376 4.756294 9.634430 18.895632 35.365576 62.508882 109.269349
2025-11-16 1.983350 4.545394 9.421856 18.858101 35.920596 64.443377 114.206033
2025-11-23 1.829093 4.314589 9.153311 18.697419 36.243919 65.994080 118.553839
2025-11-30 1.720842 4.169262 9.036140 18.806076 37.042770 68.364908 124.336997
2025-12-07 1.668962 4.139937 9.142272 19.339645 38.627689 72.128774 132.588821
2025-12-14 1.542004 3.933331 8.880118 19.148214 38.873458 73.585144 136.954880